Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Yes AZ!


Yes az, my 40+ VST target from 2056 was 2104. LOL

LT: Down
IT: Up
ST: Down

I shorted everything 2014 & 2014.25. The stop is not at the same price, but you should see the reaction within 3 30 min bars maximum tomorrow morning. 

Today I expected early morning selloff, so I exited with 32 pts rather than 47 along with 2 failed short attempt, but MM gave us another surprise - I'd say that's new gift in our trading book. haha.


Tuesday, July 28, 2015

VST Short

32 pts journey is over.
Shorting before FED is crazy, but it is what it is! :)

Monday, July 27, 2015

Crash??? ...Nah

I've heard lots of talk about crash. Yes crash happens when oversold, but it costs really really big gap down or something dramatic. I'd say it's very unlikely. MM has played extremes last rally and this selloff, but as I said all along...it's destination will be preserved. Do not fall into once in year kind of odds and be real.

LT: Down  (How many doubted about this at the top?)
IT: Up (How many doubted about this at the bottom?)
ST: Down (How scary to go short at the top?)

As a reminder, NOBODY believed me when I called LT tops and bottoms before!

(OK, to be fair, I was wrong on LT top call in 2011! I don't want to make excuses, but I never knew the power of NK & QE. Good thing we don't trade LT hehe)

Anyway, there hasn't been much activity from MM today, so everything happens right away will be all VST. ST is down. That being said, I see mounting evidences of VST bottom. Of course I went long this morning, almost got stopped out by A tick. ha! Not a good sign. However, es is proxy, our king says we have a very very good chance. In short,, If you see bullish move over night, it's likely you won''t see today's low until this VST is over. If we see a bit more of MM's accumulation and make up day (even 1 pt up), we are good to go. I believe ST bottom will be form not much below from today's low.

If you are swing trader whose minimum range is ST, it is still down. Wait for the very nice bounce to go short later.

DO NOT TRADE HOW YOU FEEL, TRADE WHAT YOU SEE.

Sunday, July 26, 2015

VST - comment cleaner

Last VST run ended overnight, but this one is likely run much more than that. Most like gap up tomorrow. All of you probably know "why", if you checked my comments last Friday. Of course we will go lower since ST is down. If you see the bearish action tomorrow, bulls better be careful - more down vol could mean MM's commitment. Stay tuned.

LT: Down
IT: Up
ST: Down

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Almost

From the recent top, my expectation was shallow pullback. If you look at the history, you will see why. That's why I tried multiple VST patterns rather than waiting for ST Buy. My last VST trade at 2095.50 was one of them. I already had a plan for next if that doesn't work out. As long as you do PM and stop, every trade should be fun and nothing to fear about MM.

Another reason I have been very active was to help you catch this ST bottom, and more importantly IT top. Once we have all LT/IT/ST lined up, you can have fun easily without me. But I've spent way too much time with posting/comments/and trade update. I had to try to update it as soon as possible even when I was in the meetings and other obligations. I just cannot continue that way.  No I am not talking about closing blog, and I will update maybe after work or when I am really free. So don't worry, I won't go away.

Today we almost had ST buy today - 0.12% off the mark. My expectation is we have VST rally soon, but the real bottom will come later, may be next week.

Remember all they are doing is training your eyes and getting into your brain. So that next time you see the same thing, you won't be able to to join the right bus. Good traders always have scenarios and stops. If your system doesn't have stop, you should stop trading.

Yes I still have IT long (25%), and VST long.

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

ST Bottom? - Nope, Breakdown!

ES bottomed (actual bottom) yesterday,
SPX bottomed (momentum bottom) today.
Two long tries failed, and 2102 is gone. That's breakdown and it's bearish

Remember?

As I waned you last night, something was not right for bears.
It's time to study Apple patterns, no?

IT Long 25% (25% added back 2102.75, sold at 2109.50)
ST Short all covered at 2102.75
ST long all covered (from 2102.50 to 2109.50)
ST long (from 2104.25, stopped out at 2104.25)
ST long (from 2103.25, stopped out at 2103.25)

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Apple crashed...now what?

Just in time, right after ST top, right? I'd say...not so fast.

Even if ES is hitting 2015 and every index looks horrible right now, there are some patterns and the fact key level 2017 has been defended at the key moment, tells me bullish gap up is very possible tomorrow morning. It's time to prepare some unexpected scenarios and trading plans if that happens.

It may sound like highly unlikely event, but it's always better to be prepared - especially when virtually everyone now expects extremely bearish tomorrow.

IT Long 25%
ST Short 50%